- Weekly views from GF Securities’ macro research team【20210503】
Post-COVID recovery: progress and outlook Recent asset performance directly related to how quickly the “COVID gap” narrowed; future investment opportunities lie in industries that are yet to fully recover We have constructed a “COVID gap” indicator based on industry added value and revenue growth t2021-05-03
- Weekly views from GF Securities’ macro research team【20210426】
Fiscal spending to be backend-loaded in 2021 The slow progress of fiscal spending in 1Q21 indicates spending may be backend-loaded this year; we suggest paying attention to the impact of more stringent regulations on the use of special bond funds The public budget revenue reached a recent-year high2021-04-26
- Weekly views from GF Securities’ macro research team【20210419】
Mixed economic data in March to widen divergence in expectations1Q21 economy in line with estimates; weaker industrial performance in March should widen divergence in policy expectations China's real GDP increased by 18.3% YoY in 1Q21, largely in line with market expectation, a moderate rate that fa2021-04-19
- How to spend and invest in the consumer sector
Consumer spending key to China's economic growth Amid sluggish external demand due to the global economic downturn and escalating China-US trade frictions, China needs to keep supporting its production expansion with growth in domestic consumer spending. Its economic model is shifting from a traditi2020-11-25
- What will be the next price surprise?
Bigger-than-expected price fluctuations are a typical feature of economic turmoil Global asset prices have seen historic corrections this year, including the ten-year US Treasury yield, crude oil futures, the gold price and the spread between China’s ten-year government bond yield and the ten-year U2020-09-09
- Grain price rises and related risks
Global grain prices on the riseSince the 1960s, global grain prices have experienced six periods with notable increases, each driven by changes in supply and demand and international financial conditions. Since the World Bank’s grain price index peaked at the end of 2012, prices have declined for ne2020-09-09
- The US economy: recovery or recession?
Multiple policy options to forestall recession The probability that the US will slide into recession after one year is 27.1%, based on the model developed by the New York Fed in early April, close to the level in 1990, when the economy was about to head into recession, but still lower than in 2008 b2020-05-05
- Greater Bay Area: Connectivity fostering innovation
From the Shenzhen Special Economic Zone to the Greater Bay Area:a transition from high-speed growth to quality growth The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area (GBA) initiative marks a milestone as significant as the Special Economic Zone laid out in the early 1980s, and the Pudong New Area in2020-04-24