- Weekly views from GF Securities’ macro research team【20211018】
Where does the economy stand now? Merrill Lynch's investment clock suggests the economy is currently in an early recession. Policies to stabilize growth will be an important sign of a shift to late recession. The economy has slowed since 3Q21 due to short-term supply constraints caused by the pandem2021-10-18
- Weekly views from GF Securities’ macro research team【20211004】
Low-valuation sectors to fend off short-term fluctuations The sell-off in the H-share market was due to the brewing debt crisis in the property sector. We suggest allocating in low-valuation sectors with good sentiment amidst the fluctuations in the short term. The sell-off in the H-share market was2021-10-04
- Weekly views from GF Securities’ macro research team【20210920】
Our take on August TSF Neutral social financing in August was due to tight financial policies. TSF is likely to trend down going forward, and it will take time for credit supply to stabilize. Social financing, renminbi loans and non-standard financing remained flat in August in terms of structure an2021-09-20
- How to spend and invest in the consumer sector
Consumer spending key to China's economic growth Amid sluggish external demand due to the global economic downturn and escalating China-US trade frictions, China needs to keep supporting its production expansion with growth in domestic consumer spending. Its economic model is shifting from a traditi2020-11-25
- What will be the next price surprise?
Bigger-than-expected price fluctuations are a typical feature of economic turmoil Global asset prices have seen historic corrections this year, including the ten-year US Treasury yield, crude oil futures, the gold price and the spread between China’s ten-year government bond yield and the ten-year U2020-09-09
- Grain price rises and related risks
Global grain prices on the riseSince the 1960s, global grain prices have experienced six periods with notable increases, each driven by changes in supply and demand and international financial conditions. Since the World Bank’s grain price index peaked at the end of 2012, prices have declined for ne2020-09-09
- The US economy: recovery or recession?
Multiple policy options to forestall recession The probability that the US will slide into recession after one year is 27.1%, based on the model developed by the New York Fed in early April, close to the level in 1990, when the economy was about to head into recession, but still lower than in 2008 b2020-05-05
- Greater Bay Area: Connectivity fostering innovation
From the Shenzhen Special Economic Zone to the Greater Bay Area:a transition from high-speed growth to quality growth The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area (GBA) initiative marks a milestone as significant as the Special Economic Zone laid out in the early 1980s, and the Pudong New Area in2020-04-24