- Weekly views from GF Securities’ macro research team【20210222】
January social financing reflects strong demand, but not monetary supply direction Strong financing demand from the real economy led to higher-than-expected credit and social financing growth in January, but we should not be too bullish on full-year credit supply New social financing came in much hi2021-02-22
- Weekly views from GF Securities’ macro research team【20210208】
Takeaways from China's fiscal work meeting A key theme of China’s fiscal work in 2021 will be to implement a more sustainable fiscal policy, in line with the direction of monetary and financial policies At the fiscal work meeting for 2021, policymakers stressed the need to implement a more sustainab2021-02-08
- Weekly views from GF Securities’ macro research team【20210201】
Impact of scrapping Chinese New Year travel on the economy Impact of travel restriction during the Chinese New Year on 1Q21 GDP should be controllable, but watch the structural impacts on various sectors and the rise of new business models Sporadic outbreaks of COVID-19 cases in China at the year-st2021-02-01
- How to spend and invest in the consumer sector
Consumer spending key to China's economic growth Amid sluggish external demand due to the global economic downturn and escalating China-US trade frictions, China needs to keep supporting its production expansion with growth in domestic consumer spending. Its economic model is shifting from a traditi2020-11-25
- What will be the next price surprise?
Bigger-than-expected price fluctuations are a typical feature of economic turmoil Global asset prices have seen historic corrections this year, including the ten-year US Treasury yield, crude oil futures, the gold price and the spread between China’s ten-year government bond yield and the ten-year U2020-09-09
- Grain price rises and related risks
Global grain prices on the riseSince the 1960s, global grain prices have experienced six periods with notable increases, each driven by changes in supply and demand and international financial conditions. Since the World Bank’s grain price index peaked at the end of 2012, prices have declined for ne2020-09-09
- The US economy: recovery or recession?
Multiple policy options to forestall recession The probability that the US will slide into recession after one year is 27.1%, based on the model developed by the New York Fed in early April, close to the level in 1990, when the economy was about to head into recession, but still lower than in 2008 b2020-05-05
- Greater Bay Area: Connectivity fostering innovation
From the Shenzhen Special Economic Zone to the Greater Bay Area:a transition from high-speed growth to quality growth The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area (GBA) initiative marks a milestone as significant as the Special Economic Zone laid out in the early 1980s, and the Pudong New Area in2020-04-24