November data were mixed  Economic data in November were mixed, indicating downward pressure on the economy. We suggest watching how fiscal easing and investment will feed into the macroeconomy at the beginning of 2022. As constraints from the supply side (price hikes caused by power rationing and p

Strengthening traditional sectors and expanding new economies  Strengthening traditional sectors and expanding new economies will be at the center of growth stabilization in 2022, which should favor capital markets, but marginal risks should be watched. The decline in economic growth in 2021 was dri

How could the new variant affect the A-share market?  The new variant may lead to larger fluctuations in major assets than in July when Delta was on the rampage. We suggest watching COVID-driven themes and those benefitting from carbon policies and new infrastructure projects in the short term. The

Consumer spending key to China's economic growth Amid sluggish external demand due to the global economic downturn and escalating China-US trade frictions, China needs to keep supporting its production expansion with growth in domestic consumer spending. Its economic model is shifting from a traditi

Bigger-than-expected price fluctuations are a typical feature of economic turmoil Global asset prices have seen historic corrections this year, including the ten-year US Treasury yield, crude oil futures, the gold price and the spread between China’s ten-year government bond yield and the ten-year U

Global grain prices on the riseSince the 1960s, global grain prices have experienced six periods with notable increases, each driven by changes in supply and demand and international financial conditions. Since the World Bank’s grain price index peaked at the end of 2012, prices have declined for ne

Multiple policy options to forestall recession The probability that the US will slide into recession after one year is 27.1%, based on the model developed by the New York Fed in early April, close to the level in 1990, when the economy was about to head into recession, but still lower than in 2008 b

From the Shenzhen Special Economic Zone to the Greater Bay Area:a transition from high-speed growth to quality growth The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area (GBA) initiative marks a milestone as significant as the Special Economic Zone laid out in the early 1980s, and the Pudong New Area in