- Weekly views from GF Securities’ macro research team【20210607】
Renminbi movements and the capital marketsShort-term renminbi appreciation is highly correlated with strengthening stock and bond markets in China, yet the uptrend may reverse given potential changes in fundamentals and policies The exchange rate is usually influenced by interest rate spreads, purch2021-06-07
- Weekly views from GF Securities’ macro research team【20210531】
The impact of upstream price hikes on different industries Upstream price hikes have brought cost pressure to most sectors, but profit margins in mining, raw materials and chemical fibers have been impacted less Commodity prices have surged since the beginning of the year. Based on our calculation o2021-05-31
- Weekly views from GF Securities’ macro research team【20210524】
Our take on April economic dataThe economy slowed modestly but was still stable in April; a foreign demand recovery, high comparable base in the property sector, and back-end loaded fiscal spending should ease China's growth pressure The two-year average of April economic data shows China's industry2021-05-24
- How to spend and invest in the consumer sector
Consumer spending key to China's economic growth Amid sluggish external demand due to the global economic downturn and escalating China-US trade frictions, China needs to keep supporting its production expansion with growth in domestic consumer spending. Its economic model is shifting from a traditi2020-11-25
- What will be the next price surprise?
Bigger-than-expected price fluctuations are a typical feature of economic turmoil Global asset prices have seen historic corrections this year, including the ten-year US Treasury yield, crude oil futures, the gold price and the spread between China’s ten-year government bond yield and the ten-year U2020-09-09
- Grain price rises and related risks
Global grain prices on the riseSince the 1960s, global grain prices have experienced six periods with notable increases, each driven by changes in supply and demand and international financial conditions. Since the World Bank’s grain price index peaked at the end of 2012, prices have declined for ne2020-09-09
- The US economy: recovery or recession?
Multiple policy options to forestall recession The probability that the US will slide into recession after one year is 27.1%, based on the model developed by the New York Fed in early April, close to the level in 1990, when the economy was about to head into recession, but still lower than in 2008 b2020-05-05
- Greater Bay Area: Connectivity fostering innovation
From the Shenzhen Special Economic Zone to the Greater Bay Area:a transition from high-speed growth to quality growth The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area (GBA) initiative marks a milestone as significant as the Special Economic Zone laid out in the early 1980s, and the Pudong New Area in2020-04-24